The Ford Mustang celebrated its 60th anniversary a few weeks ago, and it got us wondering where it is in the U.S. of A that America’s pony car is most popular. We surveyed our insurance data to find out, and learned that a little county in Kansas is Mustang-crazy, and created an interactive map to see where the rest of the country stacks up. Well, in the tradition of GM’s pony car lagging behind a bit, here’s another map, this one showing where in America the Camaro is most popular. Hover over it to see which counties have the most Chevrolet Camaros per capita.

Located at the very tip-top of the Lower 48 and sharing a border with both Manitoba and Saskatchewan, Bottineau County, North Dakota gets its name from nineteenth-century frontiersman Pierre Bottineau. Per the 2020 census, it has a population of 6379 people, and there is a Camaro insured by Hagerty for every 199 of them. It seems the rest of North Dakota is Camaro country, too, because seven of the top 20 counties with the most Camaros per capita are in the Peace Garden State.

We noted in our last map that Kansas loves Mustangs, but apparently Kansans just love pony cars in general. Sheridan County, KS, which has the most Mustangs per capita in the country, also has the second most Camaros, with one for every 243 people. The county with the third highest Camaro count per capita is in Kansas as well. As for the rest of the country, where does your hometown stack up?

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The Tesla Cybertruck is a unique vehicle, to say the least, both on the road and in the marketplace. The EV, packed with high-tech features and adorned with sharp angles, gets attention everywhere it appears. And despite teething troubles, the secondary market for the Cybertruck reflects this nothing-else-like-it appeal. New examples selling at a big premium relative to their sticker price.

It looks like a different kind of truck, but just how differently does the market treat it?

The Cybertruck joins the new vehicle marketplace in 2024, amidst slowing sales growth for EVs in general. Gone are the days of supply shortages and, for the most part, the annoyingly large added dealer markups (MSRP + dealer fees) common among popular new vehicles in 2022. In those days, new EV trucks such as the Ford F-150 Lightning, Rivian R1T, and GMC Hummer EV were popular, and they regularly had transacted well over sticker. That the Cybertruck is now enjoying similar markups even in a cooler market speaks to its popularity.

Measuring the premium of those early EV trucks isn’t hard, but does require a little more time than many of these behemoths take to get from 0-60. With the growth of online auction sites, a couple of hundred examples of those three have been auctioned as nearly new vehicles. Often, the auctions contain the window sticker price of the truck when it was new. The secondary market premium is the final price (hammer price plus fees) over the window sticker price. That premium shows how much more someone will pay to jump the line and get one of the hot new EV trucks in their driveway ASAP.

When the GMC Hummer EVs started hitting the auction market in the spring of 2022, they began selling for between two and two-and-a-half times the $112,595 sticker price (a premium of +100% to +150%). One even sold as a charity lot for $500K. That premium drifted down to about 50 percent by late 2022. By 2023, the median premium was still 39%, but by 2024, some examples are selling for sticker price.

The 2022+ Ford F-150 Lightning reached the secondary market a couple of months later in 2022, but the premium was still around 33 percent for the fall of 2022. By the fourth quarter of 2022, the premium had dropped to 15 percent. In 2023, the premium continued to drop, and in 2024, the now slightly used trucks are selling at a discount.

As an EV startup, Rivian is the most similar to Tesla, but its innovative R1T truck isn’t nearly as in-your-face different as the Cybertruck. It did beat it to market, however, and the first examples sold on the market in the spring of 2022. In that first month, the average premium was 73 percent over the sticker price. Much like the other two launched in 2022, the R1T has continued to depreciate, with the first model year trucks now selling at an average discount of 16% to their original sticker price.

Notably, the supply of nearly new examples of these three EV trucks in the secondary market is still comprised of first model year vehicles, presumably because supply has caught up with demand for the 2023 and 2024 model years.

The Cybertruck has also been enjoying a premium in the secondary market, with an average premium of 35 percent over sticker. That the truck has only been available for less than three months means it is still early days. For the big splash it has made, however, its early secondary market premiums are only stronger than the Lightning’s: Comparing it to premiums enjoyed by the other three, the Cybertruck’s 35 percent puts it slightly above the market performance of the Ford, and well below that of the Rivian R1T.

What’s different? The market in 2024 isn’t the same as it was in 2022, though, so that may account for the slightly lower premium for Tesla’s truck. That said, it’s not the only vehicle commanding a significant premium in a cooler market. The other newly available 2024 model that also currently enjoys a premium isn’t an EV, but it is from an automaker with a similarly fervent fan base. The 2024 Porsche 911 Dakar is also an innovative vehicle, and is off-road capable, but based on a limited amount of public secondary sales, it too is selling at an average of 40 percent above sticker price in the early months of 2024. Given its limited production and the trajectories of past special 911s, though, it’s likely that the valuation path of these two vehicles won’t stay the same for long.

Context really is everything: The Tesla Cybertruck is commanding a premium, and its popularity is reflected in secondary market sales. This wedge-shaped Tesla might be, well, different, but its market behavior so far tracks the paths of EV trucks before it. Regardless of the Cybertruck’s novel approach, the premiums it currently commands are unlikely to persist.

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What do Rolls-Royce and McLaren have in common? Not much. One is a nearly 120-year-old builder of silent, supple luxury cars. The other is about half that age, and makes loud, fast cars. One has nothing whatsoever to do with racing. The other has motorsports baked into its DNA, and built nothing but race cars for most of its existence.

You get the idea, Grey Poupon and papaya (McLaren’s traditional color) don’t mix. But they are both famous English carmakers, and they’re both still very much in business, with established dealership networks. And they both, somewhat surprisingly, enjoy a fairly young ownership base, measured by Hagerty’s insurance quote data. The number of people under 40 years buying a Rolls-Royce or a McLaren show demographics shifting at a faster pace for these two companies than for other British brands.

In general, the market for British collector cars has been stable, even through fluctuations in other parts of the classic car market. Hagerty’s British Car Index, for instance, is just up one percent from where it was in 2021. Enthusiasm for Britain’s best also tends to skew towards older buyers. For example, 65.5 percent of buyer interest for Triumph TR3s comes from Baby Boomers or older and for 1961-67 Jaguar E-Types the number is 66 percent. Yet this segment of the car enthusiast population makes up barely one third of the market as a whole. For Morgans, it’s even more skewed. Just seven percent of buyer interest comes from enthusiasts aged 40 or younger.

There are some youthful exceptions. About 32 percent of buyer interest for Lotus comes from enthusiasts 40 or younger, and for Land Rover it’s 27 percent, compared to just 18 percent for Porsche and 17 percent for Ferrari. The share for both Lotus and Land Rover, though, has been steady. For Rolls-Royce and McLaren, it has grown conspicuously. For McLaren, it makes sense. Over the past decade or so it has been churning out more and more new supercars that are loud, brash, and competitively priced—exactly the kind of thing that appeals to less mature buyers.

Less so for Rolls-Royce, who may build “The Best Car in the World” (their words) but does so for a more discerning type of motorist. We tend to think of the U.K.’s other luxury high-end luxury carmaker—Bentley—as having a more youthful reputation. But that’s wrong, apparently. Just 12 percent of buyer interest for Bentleys comes from enthusiasts 40 or younger, and that ratio is decreasing.

Meanwhile, according to our data, younger buyers turning to Rolls-Royces are gravitating towards Silver Clouds from the 1950s-60s and Silver Shadows from the 1960s-70s. On one hand, this is a bit surprising given the age of these models. On the other, it makes sense because these two models are among the cheapest ways to get a Spirit of Ecstasy on your hood.

Interestingly, this youthful shift for Rolls-Royce in the classic car market mirrors a similar one for the company in the new car market. After a year of record sales in 2023, Rolls-Royce’s CEO Torsten Müller-Ötvös credited youthful clientele, noting that “we are now an average age of 42; we are even younger than a brand like Mini, for instance.”

So, while they may be completely different from each other, these two British badges look like they’ll be relevant in the collector car market for years to come.

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Time flies in the car business, so it’s hard to believe over a decade has passed since a certain trio of halo hybrid hypercars burst onto the scene. They set a performance and design benchmark that defined the 2010s, and they hinted at the turbocharged, electrified future that quickly followed. By nature of their looks, speed, and exclusivity (you had to apply to buy one of these cars, and be invited to buy another), they became collectible instantly. And although they’ve seen some depreciation, they never dipped below a million dollars. That trio, of course, is the LaFerrari, McLaren P1, and Porsche 918.

Over 10 years on, they’re still deeply impressive and significant automobiles, but they’re no longer the latest and greatest, and the mystique that surrounded them in 2013-15 has diminished somewhat. Comparisons were inevitable then, and probably always will be. You can hardly speak about one without thinking of the other two, whether you’re talking lap times or sale prices. Since we talk prices here at Hagerty Insider, how does the market treat these cars 10 years after they sat on top of the hypercar hill?

When Ferrari, McLaren and Porsche started building their new, highly anticipated halo models within a few months of each other in 2013, a case of automotive déjà vu was inevitable. After all, these same three companies had done something similar in the early to mid-2000s with that decade’s definitive hypercar trio – the Ferrari Enzo, (Mercedes-Benz) SLR McLaren, and Porsche Carrera GT. But this time wasn’t a rehash of the same theme. The 2000s trio were quite different from each other—the Ferrari a cutting edge F1-inspired showpiece, the McLaren/Mercedes a brutally fast but comfortable GT car, and the Porsche a thrillingly analog stick shift sports car with world-beating performance. This 2010s trio, however, had conspicuous similarities. All were mid-engine, tech-heavy and, surprisingly, hybrids. Gas-electric hybrids were nothing new, but what was novel here was that these cars exploited electric power primarily to enhance the performance of the internal combustion engine. Added fuel economy and cleaner emissions were just nice little bonuses.

Introduced at the 2013 Geneva Motor Show, the redundantly named Ferrari LaFerrari (so called because it was “the definitive Ferrari of its era,” according to the company) was the next addition to the company’s super- and hypercar dynasty that includes the 288 GTO, F40, F50, and Enzo. Like its predecessor, it only went to Ferrari’s preferred clients, meaning that even if you had $1.5M to plonk down on an impractical two-seater, Ferrari had to invite you to do so.

The LaFerrari’s carbon fiber bodywork was styled entirely in-house by Ferrari, and sits atop a carbon fiber monocoque. Its 6.3-liter V-12 is from the same F140-family of engines that power the Enzo, 599, FF and others but in this case is tuned for 800hp, while the electric motor that works with it makes an additional 163hp. Magneti Marelli supplied two separate electric motors, one to send power to the rear wheels and another to power the ancillaries. It also has a Hybrid Kinetic Energy Recovery system (HY-KERS) developed through Ferrari’s F1 cars, which provides bursts of extra power at the driver’s discretion, for a total system output of as much as 950hp and 664 lb-ft. The LaFerrari lapped the company’s Fiorano test track a full five seconds faster than the Enzo. Ferrari produced just 500 LaFerraris, then built a little over 200 examples of the LaFerrari Aperta, an open model with removable roof.

Although McLaren built the world’s fastest sports car in 1992 with the F1, they didn’t follow it up with any in-house product, and simply went back to racing when production ended. (The SLR McLaren was produced with significant input and funding from Mercedes-Benz.) Then, at the beginning of the 2010s, McLaren finally started to become a volume sports car manufacturer with models like the MP4-12C. Much more ambitious, though, and something of a spiritual successor to the F1, was the P1.

Built around a carbon fiber monocoque chassis that McLaren calls “MonoCage,” it uses a 3.8-liter twin-turbocharged V-8 similar to lesser cars in the McLaren range, but tuned to much greater heights with 727hp and 531 lb-ft. The electric motor mounted to it fills in for the gas engine when it isn’t at peak power, like during lower rpms or during a gearshift, and makes 176hp, for a total system output of 903hp going to the rear wheels. Car and Driver called it “every bit as great to drive as you might hope it to be”, and many period tests called it the rawest driving experience of the three. The limited production run of P1s sold out quickly, to approved applicants. Just 375 were built, with over a third coming to the United States, so the McLaren is the rarest of the three hypercars by some margin.

Unveiled at the Frankfurt Motor Show in 2013, the Porsche 918 followed a similar philosophy to its Ferrari and McLaren competitors. Its 4593cc V-8 also sat behind the driver and relied on electric power to support it in key moments, and its total system output was a similar 887hp, going through a seven-speed dual-clutch semi-automatic like the other two. But there were a few key differences: The Porsche came with an electric motor at each axle. The front one directly drives the front wheels, and a clutch decouples it when not in use, so it’s effectively a part-time all-wheel drive vehicle. It can also drive short distances in silence on electric power alone, and an optional front axle lift system gets the car over bumps, so it’s reasonably practical in the real world, and road testers called it the easiest to drive of the three.

A more significant option that adds a healthy bit of value and desirability is the Weissach package. Essentially a weight savings bundle that replaced certain aluminum parts with carbon fiber ones, it also featured lighter wheels, windshield frame, roof, and mirrors, shedding a grand total of about 100 pounds.

In classic Porsche math of less car = higher price, the Weissach package grew the 918’s sticker from $845,000 to $929,000. Fittingly, Porsche sold 918 examples of the 918, making it a very rare car by almost any definition. Compared to the Ferrari and McLaren, however, it is by far the most common, and when new it didn’t sell as quickly.

From the moment they hit the second-hand market, demand for these ultra-exclusive automobiles was high. Now, anyone with deep enough pockets could buy one, not just the few cleared by the manufacturers. The initial buzz in the automotive media had been loud, all but screaming that these were basically the cars of the decade. The term “Holy Trinity” was bandied about a lot. So, when they started hitting specialist dealer showrooms and auction lots, prices climbed well above what they cost from the factory. Values then dropped significantly as demand wore off, but they rebounded during the early 2020s and have since settled into what appears to be a steady price range. All three followed this pattern, but there are some clear differences.

For the LaFerrari, prices appreciated during 2015-17 along with the other two, but the Ferrari grew at a much faster clip. From the end of 2015 to the end of 2018, #2 (“excellent”) values rose by over 57 percent, peaking at $4,075,000. By the last couple years of the decade, however, initial enthusiasm about the LaFerrari being publicly available wore off, and from the end of 2018 to the end of 2021, #2 values fell 22 percent. Then, they rebounded in a big way during the pandemic boom, and have since settled at $3.8M. LaFerrari Apertas are worth even more, by nature of their rarity and open roof, and carry a #2 value of $5,050,000.

Now that LaFerraris are getting on in age, they’re not the fastest Ferrari money can buy: An SF90 will go quicker around Fiorano. LaFerraris also have some well-known issues, specifically with the batteries. If a car sits (and many do) for long enough (more than five days, according to Ferrari) while unconnected to a power source, the batteries can degrade or fail. If the more complex HY-KERS battery should fail, it’s a six-figure replacement. Famously, rocker Sammy Hagar’s LaFerrari was pulled from auction in Scottsdale this year because, according to Barrett-Jackson, “the car’s original high voltage battery was nearing the end of its anticipated 8-year lifespan.” Instead, it will cross the block in October with a fresh battery. Even so, the LaFerrari is far more valuable than the other two. This is likely down to its invite-only status when new, its four extra cylinders, and the fact that Ferrari is a more established name with a richer heritage of building cutting-edge road cars like this, even more than such storied names as McLaren and Porsche.

Like their nemesis from Ferrari, the McLaren P1’s values grew significantly from 2015-18, peaking at $2.25M for a car in #2 condition. Then they fell sharply, losing nearly half their value (49 percent) from the beginning of 2018 to the beginning of 2021.

Their rebound during the pandemic boom also wasn’t as steep as the LaFerrari’s, and the McLaren’s prices have also tracked curiously close to the Porsche 918 despite being well over twice as rare. The #2 value currently sits at $1.7M. P1s sold more than once at auction have also proven to bring less money the second time around.

Despite their rarity and comparing favorably with their competitors, P1s have arguably performed the worst in the market. The P1 has been called a successor to the F1 (a $20M+ car), but over two decades separate the two—there’s no direct lineage. Meanwhile, the P1 has much more in common (perhaps too much) with less expensive models in the company’s lineup, which themselves have spawned numerous limited and special editions. On top of that, there are also two newer halo models—the Senna and the Speedtail—that are crowding the P1 out of the McLaren family photo.

Ferrari and Porsche also have a tradition of building low-production top-tier exotics going back decades. When the P1 came out, McLaren had only been doing it on and off for a handful of years, literally. And there’s the issue of perishable battery packs with the P1, too. While things shouldn’t be as steep as the Ferrari, owners have reported that the battery charger costs $30,000, and a replacement or upgraded battery pack over $150K.

It makes sense for the 918 to be the “cheapest” of the three, and it is. Its #2 value peaked in 2018 at $1.8M, and followed the familiar pattern of slumping from 2018-21, then rebounding during the pandemic boom. It currently sits at $1.45M. Cars equipped with the Weissach package get a substantial boost, to $1.75M. Unique specs and colors can also command a premium, as they do for most Porsches. A paint-to-sample Grand Prix White car with matching wheels, for example, sold for a world record $3,935,500 at auction last year, and one of perhaps two 918s finished in Gulf blue and orange livery sold for $3,525,000 in March of this year.

The Porsche is probably the most usable and cheapest to maintain of the three, but significantly higher supply of cars keep it from being the most expensive. If any of these cars is a “good buy,” it’s the Porsche.

In another 20 years or so when the LaFerrari, P1 and 918 are proper classics, will their decade-defining status keep them in the pantheon of top-tier collector cars? Or will their extremely complex drive systems and pricy, perishable battery packs be an albatross around owners’ necks? Time will tell, but for now they appear to have settled into a realistic price range, and although their halos aren’t shining as brightly, they haven’t gone away.

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April 17 marked sixty years since the Ford Mustang’s public debut at the 1964 New York World’s Fair. The original pony car immediately became a pop-culture and automotive phenom, and it remains one of the most impactful cars in history. Click here to follow along with our multi-week 60 Years of Mustang coverage. —Ed.

There’s a town in Oklahoma called Mustang, with a population of nearly 20,000. There’s another one in Texas, and it has a population of zero as of the 2020 census (for some reason, Mark Cuban bought it in 2021 for $2M). There is not, however, a Mustang County in the United States of America. At least not officially. This got us wondering where it is in the country that Mustangs are most popular. We surveyed our insurance data to find out. The result was this map—hover over it to see which U.S. counties have the most Ford Mustangs per capita.

A dry county named after Civil War general Philip Sheridan, Sheridan County, Kansas isn’t known for much. But it does, according to our data, have more proud Ford Mustang owners per capita than any county in the nation. Kansas in general has relatively high rates of Mustang ownership, as do North Carolina, Virginia, Montana, and North Dakota. As for places like Arkansas, Maine, Louisiana, and Illinois, maybe they’re more into Camaros—stay tuned for future maps. Where does your hometown stack up?

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After a brief bump last month, the Hagerty Market Rating slipped yet again. The Market Rating has dropped 19 of the 22 months since its 78.22 peak in the summer of 2022, to its lowest value in three years. That said, its current value of 65.41 is still higher than any point in the four years leading up to the Market Rating’s most recent surge.

The Hagerty Market Index, an open-ended stock market-style index of the Market Rating, has dropped 16 consecutive months. This is the longest unbroken losing streak in the Index’s history.

Inflation continues to impact the Market Rating. While the real value of the Auction Median Sale Price has remained unchanged the last three months, holding steady at $29,700, inflation has caused its Market Rating component metric to drop a full point during that time. Its current value of 38.03 is by far the lowest value of the Market Rating’s 14 component metrics and is the lowest this metric has ever been since it was added to the Market Rating calculation in 2011.

The market’s continued slide is evident in auction results as measured against estimates (which is not an input for the Hagerty Market Rating). In March’s Florida auctions, 68 percent of lots were bid below their low estimates, which was significantly higher than the 60 percent for the same set of events in 2023. As one industry expert noted, this growing gap indicates values are falling, as sellers’ aspirations are not adjusting quick enough to buyers’ dwindling willingness to pay. That said, our industry experts aren’t running for the hills, giving the current classic car market an average grade of 50—neither great nor devastating.

This uncertainty in values seems to be causing a disconnect in people’s perception of the real value of their classic cars. While the Hagerty Hundred—a Hagerty Price Guide index comprised of the 100 most insured vehicles—dropped to a 3-year low, the ratio of insured value increases-to-decreases for cars valued under $250,000 saw its biggest gain in nearly two years. This jump in the insured value ratio happened shortly after 14 consecutive months of decreases.

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Usually, when the Mustang and Camaro find themselves in a story together, they’re duking it out in a head-to-head comparo. This time, though, we don’t plan to spend too much time pitting them against one another. Instead, we’ll explore how their trajectories—from when they were hot new pony cars, to affordable used performance cars, to emerging classics—provide context for how we think about collector cars and their values.

Back in 1987, the Camaro IROC-Z rolled out an optional 5.7-liter, 225-horse L98 V-8 to combat the top-dog Mustang GT, which featured the same horsepower figure from its 5.0-liter V-8. The Chevy’s MSRP came in around 18 grand, depending on how many boxes you ticked, while the Ford dealer asked you to fork over a more frugal $15,000 for its GT pony. Those numbers may sound cheap, but in today’s dollars, they equate to nearly $50K for the Camaro and just over $41K for the Mustang.

Then, of course, came depreciation. Both models sold well, meaning rarity wasn’t a factor in their values on the secondary market. Also, people flogged them as intended, and a market heavy with well-used examples drove overall values down. What’s more, while all that stoplight tomfoolery was taking place, inflation silently marched on. The IROC and GT got cheap—seriously cheap, when compared to their original MSRP.

That brings us to the first point: Inflation doesn’t sleep. Collector cars can be a good investment from the right point in time, but that point is rarely ever when they’re new. This is especially true for cars that were produced in significant numbers, like the Mustang and the Camaro. (It’s not a universal truth, but even the Ferrari 250 GTO was comparatively “cheap” at one point.)

As we all know, if you wait long enough, factors can conspire to bring values back up: Time winnows the number of excellent-condition vehicles on the road, and buyers who lusted after the car that ruled their high-school parking lot get to the point where they can afford a pristine example. As the above chart shows, though, the value boost doesn’t typically happen overnight—even for two shining examples of storied nameplates.

With that in mind, the inflation-adjusted MSRP gives us another metric to assess current market value. Is $25K for a ’93 Mustang considered expensive? Or is it actually a good value? People will answer those questions differently, but if that $40K+ itch you wanted to scratch 37 years ago is available at a discount, even a shrinking one, that car for that price is still an appealing proposition.

And now for a little bit of comparison: Against inflation, the two cars have fared similarly over the last four years. Back in January 2020, the Camaro was worth 55 percent of its inflation-adjusted MSRP; today it sits at 88 percent of that number, an increase of 33 percentage points. The Mustang moved 30 points, having sat at 28 percent of adjusted MSRP four years ago compared to 58 percent now. Measure from a decade ago, though, and the IROC has gained considerably more than the GT.

The IROC’s stronger trajectory, and the fact that it’s close to crossing over its adjusted MSRP value, suggest that between these two, it was the first to cross from used car to collector car. (The pace of that transition speaks to the car’s appeal, but its unfortunate effect is that a good one is getting tougher to afford.) The Mustang, on the other hand, still represents better value in real dollars, and relative to its initial cost.

Regardless of which side you’re on, comparing against inflation-adjusted MSRP does provide a solid visual for how these ’80s warriors are maturing into revered classics.

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The post How the ’87 Mustang GT and Camaro IROC-Z Take on Inflation appeared first on Hagerty Media.

A few years ago, I was at a cars and coffee, walking down a row claimed by a British Car Club. An owner of a super-clean Lotus Evora caught me checking out their car and came over to tell me about it. “Less than 2000 miles,” was the first thing he said. “Nice,” I responded, but the conversation didn’t go much further—I didn’t know what else to say. I appreciate that others enjoy keeping a car factory-fresh, but the allure of keeping miles off a car has always escaped me—instead, it’s always seemed natural that distance covered equates to adventures and memories.

I can’t be the only enthusiast of high-mileage vehicles. After all, Matt Farah’s million-mile Lexus LS400 earned tons of well-deserved media attention. Bill MacEachern’s 800k-mile 1976 Porsche 930 Turbo is a revered feat of automotive endurance. These high-mileage stories, along with a few recent sales, got me thinking: Surely we have data at Hagerty that show which cars are appreciated specifically for their ability to rack up miles. Among those figures, I had a theory that I’d find that some people are willing to pay more for vehicles with extensive history or extremely high mileage. It was time to dig into the numbers and find out.

Rolling through the Numbers

I assembled the hundreds of thousands of auction transactions in our database that have odometer data and set about determining the parameters of my search. 300,000 miles was the benchmark—you’d be surprised how regular 200,000 miles is these days (even my daily driver Toyota is about to roll over 250,000). I also tightened the net to exclude vehicles that no longer had their original engine. High-mileage enthusiasts would care about originality—the pride is in the maintenance and the longevity, after all. That disqualified some impressive survivors, like this 603k-mile 1990 Toyota Pickup, but it did help hone the data set to the cream of the high-mileage crop.

This left just under 150 vehicles sold on online auctions dating back to 2015. A quick caveat: Auction sales are admittedly not a complete view of the market, but they provide data we can see. There’s no question other models, like Cummins-powered Dodge Rams and Power Stroke–equipped Fords are racking up the miles and commanding good money, too—they just tend to transact privately, where mileage and other details are often unavailable.

The 300K+ Club

That filtered the data to our finalists. For anyone who appreciates a long-lived ride, this list is probably not very surprising.

All of the top high-mileage cars come from Japan or Germany—countries with a reputation for overbuilding their vehicles, at least when these particular models were constructed. Mercedes-Benz still offers high-mileage awards, with the million mark as its highest threshold. In fact, Mercedes was so confident in the reliability of its cars that it installed the industry’s first six-digit odometer on the 1971 350SL. It would take nearly 30 years for the rest of the industry to completely forgo the old five-digit odometer.

The only car from a non-German or Japanese manufacturer with three or more sales above 300K miles is the Volvo 1800—not surprising considering one was driven over 3.2 million miles. The model tied two other German cars (the BMW E28 5 Series and Mercedes-Benz W124) and two other Japanese cars (Honda CRX and the third-gen Toyota 4Runner) with three each. The Volvo 240, a favorite of our media team, would have made the list if it weren’t for a few engine replacements.

Tied for first are the FJ60 and FJ80 Toyota Land Cruisers, which, if you’re at all familiar with these trucks, is not shocking. These vehicles were designed with one purpose—to last forever in the harshest environments on earth. This is from a company who overbuilds everything to begin with: Over 42 percent of the vehicles in this data set are Toyotas. This isn’t limited to their trucks, either—some of their sports cars have racked up some serious mileage. Recently, this 388K-mile 1993 Toyota Supra Turbo sold for $52K after fees, and this 421K-mile 1991 Toyota MR2 sold above our #4 value at the time. Clearly, bidders weren’t turned off by the astronomical mileage, and maybe they were even bidding because of it. More on that in a moment.

In third place is the Mercedes W123. While offered in a variety of body styles and engines, the only ones we saw make it past our mileage threshold were diesels, mostly 300s and a couple 240s, with eight of the 11 wearing a wagon body. The Mercedes 300TD wagon has a reputation (rightfully so) as one of the longest-lasting cars ever built. In fact, the car with the highest mileage on our list is a 1979 Mercedes 300TD, which was driven 782K miles by the time it sold in 2021. The only issues reported at the time of sale were that the A/C didn’t work and the cruise control would sometimes kick off. That’s it.

Fourth place finds a tie between the 100-series Toyota Land Cruiser and the first-generation Toyota 4Runner (combined with the pickup it was based on). In a few years, it’s likely that the 100-series Land Cruiser will sit at the top of this list—we have seen 51 transactions of vehicles with between 200,000 and 300,000 miles.

High Mileage Means…A Higher Price?

Having identified which cars occupy this rare air, I set out to determine whether there’s a market premium for extreme high mileage. Since mileage usually correlates to the sale price of a vehicle, I plotted price vs. mileage and added a linear line of best fit between the two. If we see “extreme-mileage” vehicles more often sell above this line, then there is likely a premium. For this, we only included sales since 2023 so we won’t have to adjust for a fluctuating market.

Looking at sales of our top three vehicles—the Toyota Land Cruiser FJ60 and FJ80, and the Mercedes W123—the one with the least convincing data is the FJ60. Let’s start there.

There is a clear trend line where price decreases as mileage increases—as expected. Plenty of examples with a lot of miles sold above this trend line, but this 1988 Toyota Land Cruiser FJ62 with 373,358 well-documented miles sold for $26,250—an outlier sale. That was a higher sale price than 43 percent of the FJ60s in the chart with fewer miles. One thing that made this Land Cruiser so desirable was that it had been owned for 35 years by a single family, who took exceptionally good care of it.

This trend becomes much more clear when looking at the next generation of Land Cruiser, the FJ80.

Here, we see two high-mileage outliers above the price vs. mileage line. The first one, a 467K-mile 1997 Land Cruiser sold for $17,295—higher than 40 percent of the FJ80s with lower mileage on this chart. What’s even more surprising is this truck was involved in a collision with another vehicle in 2014, and it doesn’t have the desirable triple-locking differentials. A 519K-mile 1995 Land Cruiser pulled in an even higher price at $18K—just under our #3 condition value.

The smaller data sets in the scatter plots illustrate specific examples, but if we expand the view to look at all FJ80 transactions regardless of time or mileage, and group them into mileage brackets, an interesting trend emerges:

As expected, median sales price falls as the mileage bracket gets higher. But, when mileage surpasses 400K, there is a significant bump in median sales price (+39 percent). You could argue that these auctions sites will be more strict with the overall quality of the vehicle as the mileage moves into this range, which could be contributing to the higher sales prices. But, going back to the scatter plot and comparing vehicle to vehicle, extreme high mileage looks more like a selling point and less like a liability.

Compare this 519k-mile 1995 Land Cruiser to another 1995 Land Cruiser with “only” 256k miles. Both are the same model year, both have three locking differentials, and both were sold on the same auction site within the same year. While the 256K-mile one has half the mileage of our outlier, it sold for 42 percent less ($10.5K vs. $18K). You could argue the condition is slightly better on the high-mileage example, but not enough to account for such a high premium. Besides, if a collector is concerned with mileage, they would likely have been scared off by 256,000 miles, much less 519,000. The bidders left in auctions like these are not only unafraid of high mileage; they appear to see it as a bragging right. When rarity corresponds to collectibility, there are much fewer 500K-mile Land Cruisers than 200K-mile ones, and bidders seem to be responding.

We saw this same phenomenon in the FJ60. Examples with over 400K miles had a median sale price above ones with between 300K and 400K, but at only a 2 percent premium. However, there was only one sale with mileage above 400K, so I decided to exclude the chart from the story.

The same phenomenon presents itself in our final vehicle—the Mercedes W123. For simplicity, we’ll stick to just the 300TD wagon—the most common W123 in our high-mileage list.

This time, it is actually two sales of the same car only a couple months apart. This 422K-mile 1982 Mercedes 300TD was bid to $12K after fees, but the winning bidder failed to pick up the car. It was then relisted two months later, where it was bid up another $1300 to finally sell for $13,387—higher than half the cars with lower mileage in our data set. This proves that the first sale wasn’t a fluke, and instead may have drawn more attention to this 300TD with such extensive history.

Again, this trend wasn’t just seen in our reduced dataset. When expanding to include all 300TD wagon sales, the median sales price for cars with 400K–500K miles is 16 percent higher than ones with 300K-400K miles and six percent higher than 300TDs with half the mileage at 200K–300K miles.

There is, however, a limit to this madness. While 300TDs with 400K–500K miles sell for a premium, this is not true for vehicles with more than half-a-million miles. To be fair, the two cars with over 500K miles are well over that bar. This 632K-mile 1984 Mercedes 300TD was in pretty rough shape when it sold in 2022. Even so, its $8558 final price was 10 percent over #4 condition value at the time, proving it still sold better than other cars in similar shape. Same story with the 782K-mile 1972 300TD mentioned earlier. While it was in better shape overall, you can’t argue that three-quarters-of-a-million miles might place it as a #4 condition car. However, its $9579 final price was 50 percent over the our #4 condition value at the time.

Long May That Odometer Turn

I might not have found a fellow traveler in the owner of that low-miles Lotus, but when I reached out to Jessica Dickinson, the woman who bought that 782K-mile 1972 Mercedes 300TD Wagon (which she has affectionately named Bella), I discovered someone who shares the idea that the right car can be a long haul companion.

“You see, my family has a bit of a history with rock-solid Mercedes with more miles on them than you can shake a stick at,” she shares in an email. “So when I stumbled upon this absolute treasure of a 300TD on Bringatrailer.com, boasting mileage that would make your head spin, well, I just couldn’t resist.” When she won the auction, she got a one-way ticket from her home in Asheville, North Carolina, to Phoenix to pick up the 300TD.

“Armed with nothing but a cigarette lighter fan and a cooler packed to the brim with ice and beverages, and a tank full of fuel, Bella and I set out on the journey of a lifetime,” says Dickinson. “We cruised down Route 66, cutting through the desert heat like a pair of outlaws on the run, well more of a jog, she is a non-turbo diesel after all. Up I-70 we climbed, into the majestic Rockies, with Bella purring along like a champ. And let’s not forget the endless stretches of corn country, where the only thing sweeter than the scenery was the sound of Bella’s engine humming beneath us.”

The two made it home, and Dickinson shares Bella with friends, encouraging them to make their own memories. The numbers bore out my idea about a niche affinity for high-mileage cars, but at the end of this journey, it was the people who proved the passion.

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Even if your tastes tend toward other eras, it’s hard to dispute that the 1950s, ’60s, and ’70s produced some of the most memorable machinery in the history of our hobby. That time period had just about anything an enthusiast could ask for: Design, innovation, experimentation, and, of course, variety.

British sports cars, ’50s fins, muscle cars, the dawn of Porsche’s 911, a heyday of passionate Italian models, the birth of the SUV, the characterful beginnings of Japanese cars … the list could go on nearly indefinitely. That array largely explains just how dominant that era is when it comes to what people choose to spend their money on.

Tallying up the sales from the last five years of online and live auctions, we find that 14 of the top 20 highest-grossing model years were within the 1955-1975 window. Vehicles made in 1967 and 1969 led the way, with each of those model years raking in more than $500M.

Breaking down the raw numbers, this 20-year period represents 16 percent of the model years considered but accounts for more than 39 percent of the $15B+ spent on collector cars from 2019 to now.

This era is also home to the greatest density of the most valuable cars. Twenty-two of the top 30 most expensive cars ever sold at auction were produced within this timeframe. Couple these high fliers with the sheer quantity of more attainable classics from this period that remain incredibly popular, and there’s yet another reason why this era’s momentum makes sense.

(Note: We always appreciate the thoughtful commentary provided by our readers. In response to a comment below, we’ve added this subsequent description and chart.—EE)

With consideration to the fact that some recent sales of truly expensive machinery may have outsize influence on overall sales numbers in the above chart, and to get more into the meat of the curve of each year’s numbers, we lopped the top and bottom 10 percent of sales from each year’s total. The outcome is very similar—peak years shift slightly, but the thrust remains the same—this twenty-year period is the strongest in the hobby. (As an aside, our analysts did not seek out the mean sale price for each year—another suggestion from our commenter—as that begins to get into a discussion of values as opposed to where people are spending their money. Your author tends to agree with the commenter that ’80s and newer models would factor more strongly in that equation, but we digress).

One of the most frequently discussed questions in the industry is whether enthusiasm for these cars will flag as generational preferences evolve. While it is possible for once-illustrious models to lose their stature and become more affordable, values are likely to taper more dramatically for models on the fringe of collector status: For instance, enthusiasts younger than baby boomers don’t value the Pontiac LeMans the way their predecessors did, but the GTO is still a blue-chip car. More broadly, however, mature market segments tend to stabilize and become less volatile over time. (We’ve observed this phenomenon with prewar cars.) Also consider that because the 1950s–70s has stood as a megalith in the hobby for so long, its staying power will protect it from quickly fading.

If anything, other segments may come up to similar heights. McLaren F1s continue to be talked about as the next Ferrari 250 GTO, and as demonstrated in the above chart by healthy sales of cars from the ’90s to today, the rise of one era does not necessarily have to come at the expense of another.

So, just like the local classic rock station that occasionally sprinkles a Soundgarden or Nirvana song in the mix of Led Zeppelin, Rush, and The Who, there might be a few new additions, but you can rest easy—the originals aren’t going anywhere.

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There’s no avoiding it—tastes evolve over time. As the generational transition among enthusiasts and collectors continues, so, too, does the march of certain cars into and out of the spotlight. Sometimes, it’s cause to celebrate a fresh round of enthusiast rides getting the recognition they deserve; others, it’s a reminder to share the joys of older models in danger of fading from view. Here at Hagerty Insider, we seek to cover this topic’s many angles, but always with some foundation in the data we observe.

Though for many, this headline likely comes as no surprise, the data do help turn anecdotes into more concrete form—they show precisely where interests lie among buyers under 40. We took a look below at the rolling 12-month average of the share of insurance quotes sought from buyers under 40 for 21 popular collector cars. Here’s what we found.

You may have heard that “Miata is always the answer,” and while the first-generation Miata is a sought-after ride, when it comes to popularity among young collectors, it’s the Nissan Skyline GT-R that’s almost always the answer. For every modern generation of the Nissan Skyline, the share of buyers under 40 healthily exceeds their 27 percent share of the overall collector market. Unsurprisingly, the Mk IV Toyota Supra also occupies a top spot on this list.

German hardware is similarly popular. Two generations of M3, the once-ubiquitous 1995-99 second-gen E36 (49 percent) and the 2007-13 fourth-gen E9X (61 percent) rate as favorites, while Porsche’s 944 also sneaks in at ten percentage points above the under-40’s 27 percent market share.

There’s another side of this coin, but the fact that some collector cars haven’t garnered the attention of the under 40 crowd isn’t a death knell for values or enthusiasm by any stretch.

Pony cars of varying ages find themselves essentially at even interest, and you’d be hard-pressed to find anyone who thinks that the Camaro or Mustang nameplates will fade into obscurity.

Two generations of Porsche 911s, the 993 and 997, despite being near-locks as future classics, haven’t attracted nearly the interest as the 944, much less the vaunted Skylines. In these instances, these data can serve as a flag to examine the causes (though the 2000-2006 Jaguar XKR might not be in the same league as the above 911s, the delta in interest is cause for analysis).

Compared to the 100-year-old Ford Model T itself, all buyers are young buyers. With that in mind, that a significant portion of its buyers are under 40 at all bodes well for the car, and the same can be said for the Model A.

While it’s well-known that enthusiasts gravitate towards the cars of their youth, this quick glimpse illustrates that there are surprising exceptions to that rule. Price, performance, usability, and mystique all shape the choices people make when looking for their next car to buy.

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The Hagerty Market Rating appears to have settled around 65 for the time being, as the collector car market resets to pre-pandemic levels. While still on the decline, the 0.01-point drop this month is the smallest the Hagerty Market Rating has seen during its current 10-month-long losing streak.

The Hagerty Market Rating’s corresponding open-ended index is decreasing at a much faster rate. Since its peak in December 2022, the Hagerty Market Index has decreased 20 points and is now below its previous high from 2015.

Last month, nearly 7000 vehicles crossed the block at the Kissimmee and Scottsdale auctions. Broadly, the January auction results confirmed that the market has retreated to 2019-2020 levels. Sell-through rates and inflation-adjusted average sale prices this year were in line with pre-pandemic norms. The Hagerty Price Guide tracked similarly, with its January update showing that the median #3 condition value has dropped to a level not seen since December 2019.

That’s not to say there weren’t any big sales. Mecum sold a 1963 Ferrari 250 California Spider for $17,875,000 and Barrett-Jackson broke the record for a non-alloy 300SL Gullwing at $3.41M.

This solid, but not overwhelming, performance moved optimism among our industry experts to above 50 for the first time in four months. The consensus among them is that values are contracting but the market has stabilized. Buying behavior is back to normal. Bidders are more selective and patient compared to the buying frenzy of 2021-2022, and sellers are setting more realistic reserves. As prices settle, and with less guarantee that a quick flip will result in a profit, speculators will continue to leave the market.

While the U.S. economy continues to stave off a recession, inflation eats away at any growth the Market Rating’s individual metrics may see. While the actual non-inflation adjusted median sale price increased $200 this month to $23,421, the Auction Median Price metric, which adjusts for inflation, dropped 2.35 points to the current value of 39.32. This is the first time this metric has dropped into the 30s since it was added to the Market Rating calculation in 2012.

It is very likely the Hagerty Market Rating will continue to fall, albeit slowly. Next month, many high-dollar cars will be offered at the Amelia Island auctions. If there is a strong showing, we may see April’s Market Rating rise, ending (at least for the moment) its downward march.

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From the Hagerty Insider live blog to detailed auction reports, we’ve sliced and diced the big sales from January in several different ways. After weeks of poring over data, however, a few chartable themes emerged. Here are a few final takeaways as the first chapter of 2024’s auction season draws to a close.

Online sales have grown, but traditional auctions still own January

Online auctions may have established a healthy steady-stream business model, but they can’t compete with the energy and entertainment factor of live auctions. The events in Kissimmee and Arizona bring car enthusiasts together to enjoy a destination, and that’s helped drive healthy sales figures and revenue beyond what’s generated when the cars cross the block. That event atmosphere concept has been around for some time, but was solidified in 2022, when a majority stake of Barrett-Jackson was bought by IMG, a company that operates hundreds of live sports and entertainment events globally. Even if the collector market is weaker, January’s live sales still posted some strong numbers, and the event atmosphere certainly helped that. At the same time, online auctions have now come close to saturation levels.

Pandemic premiums have receded

Over the repeat sales of three cars, the most recent of which happened this past January, we can trace the market’s trajectory. The face-palm-inducing prices from two years ago are gone, and that’s true across price points and segments. If you have thrown your arms up in defeat and said, “I’m priced out of the hobby,” then these times might perk you up again. We see from these repeat sales there is always money to be made and lost, but this year there was a far more even return. The spread is wide, but the median percentage return in price on a collector car bought within the last four years and auctioned in January evened out to zero percent. The deals are back out there.

Custom cars are driving Arizona auction totals

Arizona, and Barrett-Jackson in particular, has positioned itself as the place to sell customized vehicles. Barrett-Jackson was always a destination for restomod rides of all stripes, but it’s only gotten stronger over time. Interestingly, though Mecum is widely considered a haven for muscle cars, and muscle cars are a popular choice for restomods, their Kissimmee auction shows a shrinking percentage of customized vehicles. Chalk this up to two factors: Arizona’s strong reputation for this sort of car, and Mecum’s expansion into a wider array of segments combined with their ever-increasing car count.

Totals were down but not out

A slowing market may have impacted the January auctions, but you might not know it by looking at the overall sales numbers. Mecum Kissimmee posted $224M in sales, besting last year’s effort by a nose and continuing that auction’s streak of $200+M in sales. Arizona fared slightly better with its $244M final number, though that was spread out over five auction houses. Three or four more top-tier cars (offerings were down significantly from last year), and Arizona’s result may well have been in line with those from 2022 and ’23.

Time will tell whether Mecum’s solo sale in Florida will eclipse the multi-house event in Arizona. The trend suggests that might well happen, but between the softening market and the success these companies have found in making a destination out of live auctions, it’s tough to be sure how that will unfold. And that’s part of the excitement of watching January’s big shows.

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The post January’s Live Collector-Car Auctions in Four Charts appeared first on Hagerty Media.

The Mercedes-Benz 300SL W198 debuted in New York some 70 years ago this week. It was at the forefront of the car world then, and now that it is a valuable and sought-after collector car, the 300SL tends to lead the market today. We don’t mean in value—there are plenty ahead of it in that regard. Rather, 300SL repeat sales offer the perfect set of data to track as an index, and Hagerty Insider has used this tool to provide insight about the status of the collector market as whole since 2017. 

We last checked in on the 300SL Index in February 2022. At that time, the average price of 300SLs was well above the index, suggesting that the market was overheated. Our Hagerty Market Rating peaked a couple of months later in 2022 and has fallen nearly every month since, indicating that the divergence in the metrics of the 300SL index sent the correct signal. This data yielded a similar insight once before—the first time the split between the index and the average price occurred was from 2013-2015, presaging another market correction. With the most recent boom having retreated to pre-pandemic levels, we decided to take another look at the 300SL index and see where things stand.

With the January Auctions in the books, the average price of 300SLs is up again a little. Barrett-Jackson sold a 300SL Gullwing for a record price (for a non-alloy bodied car) at $3,410,000. The car boasts a world-class restoration but incomplete early history. However, the index ignores those exceptional sales by design and instead shows how the market values unexceptional 300SLs over time. (To be specific, these are quality cars, if not the ones stealing the show at auction). If the index reflects the outlook of investors who merely want a 300SL in their portfolio, their outlook appears to be turning bearish based on the continuing diverging downward trend of the index.

Conversely, the average sale price bump in 2022 reflects how 300SLs rarely seen on the market (hence cars that are not in the repeat sale index) are getting greater prices.  If the average price reflects the perspective of enthusiasts who want a specific top-flight car and its history, their outlook is more bullish. 

To illustrate how the market often treats more frequently traded 300SLs, this 1960 300SL roadster sold in August 2023 at RM Sotheby’s Monterey auction for $1,270,000 after selling at RM Sotheby’s Santa Monica auction in 2017 for $1.1 million—an annualized return of 2.3 percent. Both times, the car sold approximately 15 percent below its condition-appropriate value. In contrast, a 1962 300SL roadster that hadn’t been to auction since 2000 was sold by Gooding & Company at its Amelia auction in 2023 for $1,792,500, five percent above its condition-appropriate value. Additionally, the 300SL market might have recently become more sensitive to provenance than usual, as a case of chassis number fraud was revealed last year.

Across the market, we’ve begun to note the increasing delta between top cars and merely good-condition examples, as well as softer prices for cars lower on the condition scale. The split between average sale price and the 300SL index bears this out—Barrett-Jackson prime-time prices aside. We’ll be watching closely in the coming year to see how these data continue to unfold.

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The time has come—you kept your powder dry through the market boom, and now that prices have softened, you’ve begun to think about making your next collector car purchase. But where to shop? Though the vast majority of transactions remain private, public auctions continue to increase in popularity. If you’re considering looking toward the auction world, the marketplace has changed dramatically in the last few years, and the answer of where to look—online or live auctions (the IRL, or “in real life” referenced in the headline)—depends largely on your taste in vehicles.

Most people’s first inclination would be to take to the keyboard, and that makes sense. Everything’s available online, right? Well, yes and no. It’s understandable that there’s a massive buzz surrounding the rise of online auctions in the collector car space. In 2016, online auctions accounted for $42.45M worth of collector car sales, but by last year, that number was a staggering $1.65 billion. The car you want has to be out there in the ether, right?

It very well could be, but if you’re looking for an older car, you might want to consider heading to a live auction, too. Even with the dramatic increase in online auction sales within the last decade (47,842 collector cars sold online in the U.S. in 2023 vs 28,751 in-person), it turns out that some differences still exist between the in-person and virtual forums, and one key factor is the average age of the cars offered.

The average model year of a car headed to a live auction at the end of 2023 was 1977, while that of cars listed online was 1990. To a degree, this isn’t surprising. If you’re looking to sell your 1912 Simplex, you’re going to meet the buyer on their turf, and that still happens to be at a live event with a real person holding the gavel. Conversely, certain cars, like Nissan Skyline GT-Rs, have done well live but tend to thrive on places like Bring a Trailer. For all the promise of a marketplace at your fingertips, buyer behaviors and preferences still dictate optimal forums for where to sell a car, and live auctions continue to be dominated by older cars.

There are a couple of takeaways from this differentiation. The first is strategic, and plays into how you want to buy. You can go to where you’re most likely to find a great example of the car you’re seeking, or you can try to jiu jitsu the logic in an effort to get a deal by finding a car that’s potentially mismatched with its audience. Think of a ’90 Lotus Esprit bought at Mecum, or a ’50s Cadillac on Bring a Trailer. Given the rise in percentage of no-reserve auctions, a bit of gamesmanship might well pay off, but you’ve got to be willing to bide your time to find the right opportunity.

The second is that this widening age gap between sales forums is one sign among several that live and online auctions are beginning to carve out niches for themselves. This is apparent in business models, and even recent tactics—in keeping with the interest of online buyers, Carsandbids.com focuses on modern enthusiast cars. On the other side of the coin, Mecum recently made an upscale push at their live Kissimmee sale. As the market continues to settle and online sales platforms mature further, the two are likely to get more specialized and coexist with less market overlap than we see today. Just one more thing to think about when you’re planning your next purchase.

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If you want an accurate picture of collector car market activity, it pays to zoom in.

While big-picture data is critical to understanding how outside influences—things like interest rates and consumer confidence—impact the car hobby, the picture they paint can only offer a broad perspective. The reality is that although the market as a whole is trending downward, not all vehicle values are dropping at the same rate, and some aren’t losing value at all.

Parsing sales information into clear segments yields a more nuanced picture. Retreating average sales prices depicted in the chart below do add further evidence to the theme of a cooling broader market, but those different trajectories also contextualize where the losses in value are hitting hardest. There’s some surprising resilience in some corners of the market, too.

Before diving in, a quick note about these groupings: they are very inclusive by design, with dozens of models in most categories. They are among many internal designations (others include price point, nation of origin, and era of construction) that help our analysts sort and filter the mountain of data they review.

Back to the chart. The most stark contrast between segments comes from two that weren’t widely considered collector vehicles till the last decade or so—sport utilities and pickups. While the average sale price of SUVs we track has dropped nearly 15 percent since its peak in April of 2022, pickups have fared far better, losing only three percent, or $900, from the height of their values in January ’22.

Muscle cars, perhaps the most significant staple of the collector market in the U.S., have retreated much more slowly than the newcomer SUVs, and to a far lesser extent—they’re only down 5.5 percent since May 2022. Another mainstay, sports cars, saw their values drop quickly in 2022 but have since recovered slightly to sit 6.8 percent below their peak.

Average prices for the Luxury grouping, which includes a spread of models from ’60s Lincoln Continentals to ’80s Rolls-Royce Silver Spurs, peaked earlier than most in July of 2021. Although average sales for this segment are down 12.5 percent since then, value losses are not accelerating.

Land yachts is an admittedly more specialized characterization than our other segments—our analysts might work with numbers all day, but they do have a sense of humor—and includes Cadillacs and Lincolns from the ’60s and ’70s. Their steady rise precedes the pandemic market boom, and has only recently taken a noticeable downturn.

While there’s no sugarcoating the collector car market’s overall downward cascade, it’s important to remember that prices don’t move in universal lockstep. Of course, this chart’s delineations represent about one click in on the microscope—there are plenty of ways to filter data into more granular fashion. If you’re beginning to think about what belongs in your garage next, understanding these value trends can help make sense of potential emerging opportunities in the market.

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Across the internet car world, memes abound depicting sellers who “know what they’ve got,” imploring any interested parties not to make low-ball offers. Of course, this is regardless of whether their vehicle is exceptional, or whether the asking price has any bearing in reality.

There’s more than a kernel of truth behind these jokes—we’ve all seen those ads, and during the boom, several consignors I interviewed stated that many sellers were insistent on setting very ambitious and sometimes overly ambitious asking prices. The tactic paid off for many, but one bit of data—the sell-through rate (STR)—shows how buyers have been slowly influencing reduced asking prices as far back as the beginning of 2022.

Sell-through rate is exactly what it sounds like: the percentage of lots that transact successfully in a given auction or time period. Hagerty analysts include both reserve (auctions that have a minimum bid threshold for the car to sell) and no-reserve auctions when tallying up this data, as doing so paints a more complete picture of public auction activity.

What does sell-through rate tell us? Take a look at the chart below. During the market’s ascendancy, buyers were eager to get in the game and willing to meet or exceed the reserve prices set by sellers. This meant more cars found new homes, driving up the sell-through rate. When buyers eagerly pay what sellers are asking, sellers are naturally emboldened to keep pushing prices upward.

That can’t last forever, though, and the 84 percent sell-through rate in the first two months of 2022 would prove to be the highest percentage for combined online and in-person auctions in the last eight years. It was at that point that buyer behavior began slowly exerting a downward influence on prices.

When the buyers’ analysis of a vehicle’s value is less than the expectation of the seller, cars go unsold, reducing the sell-through rate. We see this in the data—the STR dropped quickly through 2022, and though its rate of decline slowed somewhat over this year, it remains on an overall downward trajectory.

The effect of this dissonance between buyer and seller may be immediate for someone who fails to sell a car at their desired price, but the impact on the market is delayed. Sellers take time to reset their analysis of their car’s market value because they rely on backward-looking data and may be hopeful that their car can still fetch an ambitious price. Buyers, on the other hand, look forward to what might happen to the market and are far less willing to move upwards to a seller’s reserve when they know they can go elsewhere or wait for a deal.

When we observe a return to relative stability in the sell-through rate (like the slow movement shown on the graph from 2016 through 2019), we’ll know that the days of exuberant pricing are fully behind us. Till then, the buyers are truly the ones who know what the sellers have.

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Nearly 12 months ago, we made several predictions about what would happen in the enthusiast vehicle market in 2023. We value a good gut check, so we are scoring our predictions to see what we got right and wrong. How did we do? This year provided a few curves for us to navigate, but overall our percentage was pretty solid. Hop in and see if we were able to beat our percentage from last year.

1. A Ferrari will sell for $40M+. One point. $51.7 million bought a 1962 Ferrari 330 LM / 250 GTO. We’ve written about this RM Sotheby’s sale here, but it was one of five Ferraris sold this year for more than $10 million. Most years, only a couple of Ferraris sell for more than $10 million. Sometimes a year goes by where none transact for that much. The last time more than five sold for more than $10 million was in 2014 (six found new homes then), so 2023 was a bit unusual. Perhaps we’ll see even more in 2024. 

2. Classic car imports from Europe (and particularly the United Kingdom) will continue to surge. We’ll take half a point on this one. Imports from Europe are up 8.7 percent, with just less than 300 vehicles per month entering the U.S. in 2023. Imports from the U.K. increased 1.9 percent—not as strong as we expected. The rate of growth from both regions is slowing partly because the U.S. Dollar is no longer quite as strong against the Euro and the Pound.

3. The average value of a collector motorcycle will surpass $10k USD for the first time. One point, by a nose. The average condition 3 value of motorcycles in the guide was $10,037, up from $9732 last year.

4. Appreciation for lower priced (< $250K) vehicles will slow in 2023, while $1m+ vehicles will appreciate faster. Half a point. We got the lower end of this prediction correct: vehicles with a condition 2 value of less than $250,000 a year ago appreciated 3.8 percent on average, down from 7.9 percent the prior year. However, those with a condition 2 value of $1 million+ a year ago slowed too, appreciating at 3.5 percent, compared to 7.8 percent in 2022. 

5. An ABC Kei car will sell for over $50,000. No points. They’re cute, but evidently not that cute. A couple of Autozam AZ-1s sold for nearly $30K, but the Kei car market was still too small in 2023. 

6. No NFTs will sell at a collector car auction. One point. Does anyone remember these?

7. Online auction growth will continue to slow. One point. Online auction sales grew five percent in 2023 vs. 45 percent growth for 2022, yielding total sales of “only” $1.7 billion. The number of vehicles sold grew more slowly, too; after an increase of 28 percent in 2022, the increase slowed to 19 percent in 2023, for a total of approximately 35,000 vehicles.

For 2022, our predictions were correct 75 percent of the time. This year, we only managed 71 percent. Will our 2024 predictions reverse the trend? Stay tuned.

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We’ve been tracking the collector car market’s retreat with a keen eye over the last 18 months. After an almost unceasing march upward, its gradual return to rationality is a welcome sight for most. Except those who bought collector vehicles in the last two years with an eye toward reselling, that is.

Senior information analyst James Hewitt tracks a massive amount of data each month. One set from November, resales at public auction, caught his eye: a full 68 percent of cars—51 out of 75—bought at public auction in 2022 and then sold in November 2023 had negative returns. The average return for this group is -6 percent, while the median is -10 percent. That’s a precipitous drop from the beginning of 2022, when the average return for vehicles held for 24 months or less was 36 percent.

To put these stats into metal and rubber, take the ’57 Ford Thunderbird featured at the top of this piece. Purchased in January of 2022 at Mecum Kissimmee for $40,700, it sold for half that—$20,300—at Mecum Las Vegas last month.

This data isn’t isolated to particular segments, either. This 2017 Aston Martin DB11 Launch Edition was purchased at Mecum Kissimmee in January, 2022 for $181,500 and sold last month for $98k on Bring a Trailer.

This has broader meaning than merely articulating the hurt put on folks who sold after a short period of ownership, however. These data demonstrate the collector market’s rather quick transition from a seller’s market to one where buyers hold sway. That’s bolstered by the fact that the share of no-reserve auctions is at its highest since 2019. The frenzy is fully gone—more than a year ago, buyers began to sense a deal could be had if they were willing to be patient, and that may well have become the current prevailing market sentiment.

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Just about everyone in the collector car world—and more than a few investors outside of it—has opinions on what classics are worth and what impacts their values. Far less thought has been given to a question that is arguably more fundamental: How big is the supply? In other words, how many collector vehicles actually exist?

A multiyear study by the Hagerty Valuation Team sought to determine just that. Our conclusion is that there are 31 million collector vehicles in the United States. Turns out this little hobby isn’t so little.

How we got here

Zeroing in on the size of the collector car market is no simple task. Most sales are conducted privately, not all classic cars are registered, and some have decayed to the point that they aren’t really even cars anymore. And then there’s the sticky matter of determining what qualifies as “collectible.”

Finger-in-the-air estimates have circulated through auction tents, boardrooms, and car-kindred conversations like ghost stories around a campfire, and those estimates have typically ranged from 5 million to 15 million enthusiast vehicles.

To come up with a more exact number, Hagerty’s Valuation Services team started with a dataset that included nearly every vehicle imaginable. It was, as you might expect, a very big, messy list, clouded by some 325,000 unique and sometimes duplicative manufacturer names (is that a Volkswagen Thing or a Kübelwagen?). Analysts relied on the Hagerty Vehicle Information Database and VIN decoder, as well as manuals and registries to eliminate airplanes, boats, buses, construction equipment, recreational vehicles, and trailers.

With the data in a usable state, the next task was to figure out how many of those vehicles are still on the road. We love hearing stories of barn finds that have been brought back to life, but statistically speaking, the inherent volatility of their condition prevented their inclusion in this study. To calculate how many of the vehicles in our database were active, we used two methods. For collectibles produced after 1981 (the year VINs became standardized), we compared Hagerty Price Guide and underwriting vehicles to vehicle-in-operation data and production numbers. For vehicles manufactured before 1981, we analyzed effective and expiration dates of full coverage insurance as well as registration transactions to estimate what is active.

Now for the thorniest question: What is a collectible vehicle? We all have opinions, but for this study, Hagerty defined a collector vehicle as a car, truck, or motorcycle that is at least 30 years old and has demonstrated a broad appeal as something more than daily transportation. We also included certain enthusiast vehicles less than 30 years old that are covered in the Hagerty Price Guide. As is often the case, the insurance side of Hagerty’s business provided context: We included vehicles listed in Hagerty’s insurance underwriting guidelines. The long list of eligible vehicles features first-ballot Hall of Famers like the Ford Model T and the Duesenberg Model J, along with contemporary exotic supercars built by Bugatti, Ferrari, and Porsche. Historic nameplates, such as the Chevrolet Corvette and the Ford Mustang, transcend eras; emerging specialty vehicles like the Subaru WRX, Mazda Miata, or Lincoln Blackwood pickup might come as a bit of a surprise.

The total, nearly 31 million enthusiast vehicles in the United States, still represents but a slice of the overall car market, which is some 275 million and counting. But it’s a significant slice. For perspective, there are more collectible vehicles in the United States than there are registered vehicles of any kind in Canada (27.9 million).

The fact that there are so many collector cars also tells us there are plenty of collectors. Hagerty estimates there are 18 million enthusiast vehicle owners in the United States, meaning 8 percent of all Americans with a driver’s license have a collector car in their driveway.

The total value of these vehicles is huge, falling just shy of the trillion-dollar mark, and they transact often. Annual auction sales total around $1 billion, collector car dealer sales amount to approximately $1.8 billion (IBISWorld), and the opaque private market ranges anywhere from $20 billion to $30 billion in annual sales.

That said, the average price of these vehicles, close to $28,500, is much more affordable than a new car (and more affordable than the cost of an average wedding, for that matter), putting to rest the notion that the term “collector car” is interchangeable with “expensive car.” Vehicles valued in excess of $249,000 make up little more than 1 percent of the American vehicle population.

Hagerty’s study also showed that the term “collector car” isn’t equivalent to “old car.” Rather than being filled with 1932 Ford Model As or 1957 Chevy Bel Airs, the market is dominated by cars and trucks from the 1970s and 1990s in particular, with 59 percent of all enthusiast vehicles in the United States having been manufactured after 1980. As regular readers of Insider know, the rise of Generation X’s buying power has brought more neon-tinged modern sports cars and SUVs into the collectible sphere.
Even so, the core interest in the market has remained largely unchanged over the years. Enthusiasts of all generations—including millennials—still chase established collectibles like the 1965–66 Ford Mustang, of which 353,000 continue to cruise today’s roads. Much older cars and trucks, though, are losing relevance. Some 1.5 million vehicles made prior to 1950 have been lost from the U.S. vehicle population since 2016, be it through expired registrations or through attrition.

The American collector car market is also mostly, well, American. Chevrolet, Ford, Dodge, Pontiac, and GMC battle for the top spots across all decades, and American marques comprise 55 percent of the vehicle population. European and Japanese marques represent 24 and 16 percent of the market, respectively, a share that is sure to grow as more vehicles from the 1990s and later enter collectible status.

Here to stay

The most important takeaway from our study is simply that the collector car market is huge. And it’s likely to keep growing. Some of the best enthusiast cars of any era hit showrooms during the past 15 years in massive numbers—think everything from Porsche 911 GT3s to Ford Mustang GT350s and Mitsubishi Evos. Those that haven’t already become collectible are poised to exit their depreciation curve soon and find their way into enthusiast ownership. So, although you may not see a collector car in traffic every day, the collector car market is big enough that it will be with us for years to come.

Tim Weadock has been collecting valuation and market data for Hagerty for two decades. He is one of the inventors of Hagerty’s pre-17-digit VIN decoder.

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